Relative Likelihood of Fireball Visibility for Fragments of Shoemaker-Levy 9

Mark Boslough and David Crawford (Sandia National Labs, Albuquerque, NM)

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Fragment    Impact Time (a)    Best Locations for Viewing     Likelihood of (b)
            (UTC) +/- ~0:10      Jupiter at Impact Time       Visible Fireball
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   A     July 16   19:54       Africa (except W. Africa),               :-(
                                Middle East, Eastern Europe
   B     July 17   02:49       Eastern N. America, Mexico,              :-(
                                Western S. America  
   C               06:56       New Zealand, Hawaii                      :-(
   D               11:42       Australia, New Zealand,                  :-(
                                Japan   
   E               15:04       India, Southern China,                   :-|
                                S.E. Asia, Western Australia
   F     July 18   00:28       S. America                               :-|
   G               07:28       New Zealand, Hawaii                      :-)
   H               19:26       Africa (except W. Africa),               :-)
                                Middle East, Eastern Europe
   K     July 19   10:18       Australia, New Zealand               :-) :-)
   L               22:07       Brazil, W. Africa, Spain             :-) :-)
   N     July 20   10:19       Australia, New Zealand                   :-|
   P2              15:05       India, Southern China,                   :-|
                                S.E. Asia, Western Australia
   Q1              19:59       Africa (except W. Africa),       :-) :-) :-)
   Q2              19:32       Middle East, Eastern Europe              :-)
   R     July 21   05:22       Hawaii, West coast N. America        :-) :-)
   S               15:07       India, Southern China,           :-) :-) :-)
                                S.E. Asia, Western Australia
   T               18:04       Africa (except W. Africa),               :-(
                                Middle East, Eastern Europe
   U               21:47       Brazil, W. Africa, Spain                 :-|
   V     July 22   03:57       Western U.S., Mexico                     :-|
   W               07:53       New Zealand, Hawaii,             :-) :-) :-)
                                Eastern Australia

 Key:  :-) :-) :-)   Best group (Most likely to be visible)
           :-) :-)       Second best group
               :-)           Third best group
               :-|              Not very good
               :-(                 Worst (Least likely to be visible)

(a) The impact time predictions are by
     P.W. Chodas, D.K. Yeomans and Z. Sekanina (JPL/Caltech)
     P.D. Nicholson (Cornell)
        Predictions as of 1994 July 5; average uncertainty is around 10 min.
        Date of last astrometric data in these solutions: 1994 July 4

(b) Based on the following sources:
       1) Ballistic fireball trajectories of
          M.B. Boslough, D.A. Crawford, A.C. Robinson and T.G. Trucano
          (Sandia National Laboratories)
         "Watching for Fireballs on Jupiter", EOS, July 5, 1994.
       2) Relative brightnesses of fragments from Karen Horrocks, May, 1994.
       3) Predicted impact locations in distance beyond Jupiter's limb by
          Chodas et al. (above).
  

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